Course Description


P8477   Epi Modeling for Infectious Disease, 3 points

How do modern technologies enable us to track and predict epidemics? What analysis is necessary to make sense of these models, and how can we communicate our findings to a broader public? This course features an introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases and their public health control interventions. Students will develop and implement models for infectious diseases and their public health control using compartmental modeling computer simulation methods implemented with Stella® software. The fundamental concepts and principles of epidemic modeling with differential equation based methods will be taught using computer-aided instructional methods to facilitate student learning without the prerequisite of advanced mathematical training. A brief introduction to Agent-Based epidemic modeling using Netlogo® will also be included. Students successfully completing the course will be able to: 1) organize information about an infectious disease’s transmission, natural history and immunologic response and associated public health interventions in order to determine the structure, equations and parameters needed to develop an original model for an infectious disease; 2) critique models in the epidemiologic literature for the appropriateness of their abstraction of key features of the infectious disease; and 3) analyze, interpret and translate formulas for ordinary differential equation systems into a computer implementation of a compartmental model with the proper structure to appropriately represent the epidemiologic transmission mechanisms and contact patterns for an infectious disease. Grading in the course will be based on quizzes and computer homework exercises, a group student modeling project write-up and presentation, and a written final examination.